In some states, Omicron seems to have already peaked. COVID-19 case counts have dropped by more than 30% in Maryland, New Jersey, and New York have since early last week, according to The New York Times COVID Tracker.  “The peak [in the U.S.] was predicted to be the third week of January,” says Jessica Malaty Rivera, MS, an infectious disease epidemiologist and science communicator. There are variables: Case counts may spike again in states where they’re currently declining, and while predictive models indicate cases will drop in other states too, it’s hard to say exactly when. “The expectation is that probably by February, the peak will die down,” Malaty Rivera says. That said, there tends to be a lag between positive cases and hospitalizations, and hospitalizations and deaths, she notes. All in all, while the surge won’t last forever, “it’s going to be a rough two months,” says Malaty Rivera.