Birth Rates at Lowest Since Records Began: Warning Signs for Humanity?

The global TFR has more than halved over the past 70 years, from around five children for each female in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021—with over half of all countries and territories (110 of 204) below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per female, as of 2021.

If anything, this shows that birth rates are at their lowest point in recorded history in many countries around the world and thus has raised concerns about the future of humanity.

This decline has been attributed to a number of factors, including urbanization, changing social norms, economic uncertainty, and access to contraception. While some experts argue that a declining birth rate could have positive environmental impacts, others warn of severe economic consequences, such as labor shortages, shrinking tax bases, and difficulty supporting aging populations.

This article reveals the confluence of factors contributing to a decline in birth rates and examines its possible effects (positive and negative) across various sectors.

Global Declines in Birth Rates

Birth rates at lowest levels have been observed in many developed nations, with some even experiencing population decline. The lowest birth rate in South Korea was recorded at 0.92 in 2019, a figure below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.

Sadly, South Korea isn’t the only country experiencing declining birth rates. Countries like Sweden are currently experiencing the lowest birth rate ever recorded with women averaging 1.45 children — the lowest recorded since 1749.

"So far in 2024, the trend continues to decline," said Guadalupe Andersson, a population statistician at the government agency Statistics Sweden (SCB).

In 2020, lowest birth rate in Britain since records in 1938 was recorded at 1.58, with the total fertility rate remaining below replacement level since 1973. China, the world's most populous country, has also experienced a drop in its birth rate, leading to a population decline of roughly 400,000 people on an annual basis. This trend is projected to accelerate, potentially resulting in China losing 600 to 700 million people by 2100.

The United States, India, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Indonesia have also seen their birth rates fall below or hover around the replacement rate. Even countries like Pakistan and Nigeria, which still have relatively high birth rates, are experiencing a steady decline compared to their 1960 figures.

Causes of Declining Birth Rates

The decline in birth rates is not a recent phenomenon. For decades, various societal, economic, biological and cultural changes have been subtly reshaping family structures and reproductive choices. Here are the main causes of the declining birth rate.

1. Urbanization

The mass migration from rural areas to cities over the past century has fundamentally changed the economic incentives surrounding family size.

While children in agricultural settings historically represented an economic asset, providing labor for family farms, children in urban environments are more of a financial burden. Consequently, the increased costs of housing, education, and childcare in urban settings incentivize smaller families.

2. Economic Uncertainty

Periods of economic instability and uncertainty tend to coincide with declining birth rates. The impact of the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, periods marked by job insecurity, financial instability, and widespread anxieties about the future were accompanied with low birth rates because such circumstances make family planning seem risky and less appealing.

3. Rising Living Costs

The increasing cost of living, particularly for housing, is a powerful deterrent to family growth. In many developed countries, young adults face daunting financial challenges, often struggling to achieve the financial stability they perceive as necessary for raising children. As a result, they delay or forgo having children, prioritizing financial security over family expansion.

4. Changing Role of Women

Urbanization has opened doors for women, providing them with greater access to education and career opportunities. This has empowered women to make different life choices, often prioritizing education and career advancement over early motherhood.

Additionally, the availability of reliable contraception in urban areas has given women greater control over their reproductive decisions, leading to a decline in unintended pregnancies and smaller families.

5. Evolving Societal Norms

Shifts in societal norms surrounding marriage and family have also contributed to declining birth rates. There is a trend towards delayed or forgone marriage, with birth rates among single women lower than those for married women.

This suggests that changing attitudes towards marriage play a role in declining fertility rates. Additionally, there's a growing acceptance of voluntary childlessness, with more individuals opting to remain child-free, driven by changing societal values and personal preferences.

Potential Positive Impacts

Historically, overpopulation has been linked to global warming, with the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirming that population growth exacerbates greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, a Swedish study published in 2017 unveiled that having one fewer child per family could spare approximately 58.6 metric tons of carbon emissions annually in high-income countries.

As such, not having children is in theory the most effective measure an individual in a high-income country can take to reduce their carbon footprint, more than 50 times more effective than eating a plant-based diet, recycling, or not using a dryer.

The Economic and Social Consequences of Declining Fertility Rates

While acknowledging potential benefits of a reduced global population, there are also downsides such as:

1. Shrinking Workforce

A decline in births directly translates to a smaller pool of workers entering the labor force, leading to labor shortages across various sectors. This can hinder economic growth and create difficulties for businesses in finding qualified employees.

2. Strained Social Security and Healthcare Systems

With fewer workers supporting an expanding aging population, these essential safety nets face a precarious future. This imbalance could result in higher taxes, reduced benefits, or a combination of both. As the ratio of working-age individuals to retired individuals continues to shrink, the fiscal stability of national health insurance and social security programs will be increasingly challenged.

3. Economic Slowdown

A shrinking working-age population could potentially trigger a decline in consumer spending and hinder overall economic activity. This could subsequently lead to slower economic growth and reduced tax revenues, further exacerbating the economic challenges posed by declining fertility rates.

4. Geopolitical Shifts

Declining populations may result in diminished global influence and economic power for affected countries. This could make it more difficult for them to maintain their standing in the global arena, leading to potential geopolitical shifts.

Closing Notes

Addressing the challenge of declining fertility rates necessitates a holistic approach that takes into account the multifaceted factors at play. While pronatalist policies may offer some short-term incentives, a sustainable solution requires tackling underlying societal and economic issues, such as gender inequality, economic barriers, and evolving societal norms.

Respecting individual choices, promoting gender equality, and creating a supportive environment for families, regardless of their size, are essential steps towards addressing this global trend and ensuring the well-being of future generations.